Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 15 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will fall within one of several defined ranges, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The current market pricing reflects zero probability assigned to the YES outcome, suggesting traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature band or expect conditions outside the resolution parameters. USDC settlement on Polygon will depend entirely on which range captures the peak reading on that date.

Seoul's August climate presents a consistent pattern: mid-to-high 30s Celsius is standard, with occasional peaks above 35°C during heat waves. Historical data from the Korea Meteorological Administration shows August 2023 peaked at 33.1°C in Seoul proper, whilst Incheon airport—situated near coastal influences—typically records slightly cooler maxima. The 2018 heat wave pushed temperatures to 39.6°C across the region, though such extremes remain outliers. Current market pricing at 0% suggests the defined range may sit at an outlier threshold rather than the modal expectation for mid-August conditions.

Traders monitoring this contract should track seasonal forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific, as typhoons can suppress temperatures significantly. El Niño or La Niña conditions heading into August 2026 will influence broader atmospheric patterns. The resolution mechanism's reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—not the Day High & Low summary—creates a technical dependency worth verifying against alternative sources before settlement, particularly if readings cluster near range boundaries.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 15? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.