Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 17 August 2026, Seoul's Incheon International Airport will record a daily high temperature, and this market settles on which Celsius range contains that figure. The 0% crowd probability reflects genuine uncertainty about which temperature band will resolve, not confidence that no reading will occur—the settlement mechanism requires selecting from predefined ranges rather than betting on whether measurement happens. Polymarket's conditional token structure means traders are pricing relative confidence across discrete outcomes, with USDC collateral locked across Polygon until the Weather Underground Daily Observations table closes the record.

Seoul's August climate presents a narrow historical band for forecasting. The city's August average high sits around 29°C, with extremes typically ranging 25–35°C across the month. The 2018 heat wave pushed readings toward 39°C, whilst cooler Augusts have seen highs near 23°C. Incheon Airport, located on a coastal peninsula, experiences slightly moderated temperatures compared to central Seoul due to maritime influence, typically running 1–2°C cooler than the city proper. Historical volatility suggests the market's dispersed probability reflects genuine difficulty pinpointing a single range rather than consensus forming around any outcome.

Traders should monitor the East Asian monsoon pattern and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during mid-August 2026. The Korean Meteorological Administration typically issues extended forecasts two weeks ahead, providing the most actionable signal for range positioning. Coastal weather patterns can shift rapidly; a typhoon approach would suppress temperatures sharply, whilst a high-pressure system would elevate them. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 17 August, meaning traders have until that point to adjust positions based on real-time observations from Incheon Airport's official station.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 17? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.