Highest temperature in Seoul on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul faces a critical heat threshold on 13 July 2026, with the Incheon International Airport station set to record the day’s peak temperature in degrees Celsius. The Polymarket contract for this event currently prices the YES outcome at 0%, implying the crowd expects the temperature to fall outside the defined resolution range. This pricing reflects a market that has not yet factored in the region’s escalating summer heat trends, which have seen early July temperatures climb to 37.8°C in recent years, marking the hottest start to the month in 117 years[1][6].

Historical data frames this 0% probability as potentially misaligned with reality. July 2025 was South Korea’s second-hottest July since records began in 1973, with a nationwide average of 27.1°C[3][7]. The all-time national record reached 41.0°C in Hongcheon, while Seoul itself hit 37.7°C in an earlier July, beating records from 1908[4][6]. Given that Incheon’s airport station typically records temperatures slightly lower than central Seoul but still within the same climatic band, a 0% implied probability ignores the consistent upward trajectory of Korean summer extremes.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 13 July. The Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily bulletins and recent reports on “tropical nights” with overnight temperatures above 25°C for 22 consecutive days signal sustained heat pressure that could push daytime highs into the target range[2]. With USDC liquidity on Polygon and conditional token mechanics enabling instant position adjustments, the market remains sensitive to any sudden spike in the hourly temperature feed before the deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on July 13? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.