Highest temperature in Seoul on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul faces its peak summer heat on 15 July 2026, with the Incheon International Airport station set to record the day’s highest temperature in degrees Celsius. The contract currently trades at 0% probability for the YES outcome, implying the market expects the temperature to fall outside the specific range defined for that option. On Polymarket, this zero pricing reflects a consensus that the historical data or current seasonal models make the targeted range highly unlikely, locking USDC liquidity into the opposing NO position on the Polygon network.

Historically, mid-July in Seoul sees temperatures routinely climbing between 28°C and 34°C at the Incheon station, with extreme outliers reaching 37°C during heatwaves like those in 2018 and 2023. The 0% implied probability suggests the market’s defined range is either significantly below this typical band or implausibly high, as comparable cases show consistent clustering in the high twenties to low thirties. Traders reviewing Wunderground’s daily archives for RKSI will find that deviations beyond this band are rare, reinforcing the current pricing as a rational reflection of seasonal norms rather than an anomaly.

Key catalysts include the Korea Meteorological Administration’s weekly heatwave advisories and real-time updates from Wunderground, which serves as the official resolution source. Traders should monitor the 24-hour forecast schedules released every morning, as sudden shifts in monsoon patterns or urban heat island effects could alter the final reading. Recent reports from Yonhap News highlight increasing summer intensity in the capital region, suggesting that while extreme highs are possible, the specific range in this contract remains statistically improbable given current atmospheric dependencies.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on July 15? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.