Highest temperature in Seoul on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul faces its peak summer heat on 16 July 2026, with the Incheon International Airport station set to record the day’s highest temperature in degrees Celsius. On Polymarket, this weather contract trades at 0% for the YES outcome, implying the crowd believes the temperature will fall outside the defined range, likely due to an expectation of extreme heat surpassing the upper bound or a misalignment in the range definition itself. Traders using USDC on Polygon can acquire conditional tokens to hedge or speculate on the Wunderground-verified reading from the RKSI station.

Historically, mid-July in South Korea delivers scorching conditions, with daily average highs nearing 30℃ and humidity pushing the felt temperature above 34℃ during noon hours [2]. The month sits squarely within the monsoon season, making it the rainiest period in Korea, yet heatwaves often persist between downpours, driving temperatures well above 30℃ in urban and airport zones [2]. Given that 0% implies near-certainty of a NO resolution, the market likely anticipates the temperature will exceed the contract’s upper threshold, consistent with recent years where Seoul frequently breaches 35℃ in July.

Traders should monitor real-time weather updates from Wunderground and Korean meteorological bulletins for any sudden shifts in cloud cover or rainfall that could suppress peak temperatures. While no specific announcements are pending, the dependency on the RKSI station’s hourly data means even brief cloud interruptions could alter the outcome. With the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on 16 July, liquidity may tighten as the clock approaches, reflecting the binary nature of on-chain weather resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on July 16? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.