Highest temperature in Seoul on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's peak temperature on 25 July 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station and resolved against Wunderground's historical records. The market currently prices this outcome at 0% YES across all temperature bands, reflecting the settlement window's closure before the event occurs—traders cannot yet assess atmospheric conditions or seasonal patterns that will determine the actual high. This timing constraint means the contract exists primarily for those positioning ahead of the date or hedging exposure to Korean summer weather.

Seoul experiences pronounced mid-summer heat, with July typically the warmest month. Historical data from recent years shows daily highs in late July ranging between 28°C and 34°C, though extreme heat waves have occasionally pushed readings above 35°C. The 2018 heat wave saw temperatures exceed 39°C across South Korea, whilst more typical late-July conditions cluster around 30–32°C. Understanding this distribution is essential for calibrating position sizing, as the resolution bands will determine which temperature range settles YES.

Traders should monitor meteorological forecasts released in early July 2026, particularly from the Korea Meteorological Administration, which typically issues extended outlooks 10–14 days in advance. Pacific typhoon activity and the strength of the North Pacific high-pressure system during late July will be the primary drivers of whether Seoul experiences typical summer heat or anomalous conditions. USDC settlement on Polygon will execute once Wunderground data confirms the daily maximum, making real-time weather tracking critical for those holding positions through the resolution window.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on July 25? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.