Highest temperature in Seoul on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the Incheon Intl Airport Station high for 27 July through USDC on Polygon, with conditional tokens settling to the temperature band that matches the day’s observed maximum. At 0% YES, the market is effectively saying a Seoul-area maximum in the relevant range is not yet priced at all, even though the contract resolves from Wunderground station data rather than a city-wide reading.

For context, Seoul’s midsummer highs often sit in the low- to mid-30s Celsius, so a zero-price can reflect either thin liquidity or a strong view that the eventual reading will miss the target band. Local reporting on 27 July says showers are expected in the capital region, with Seoul forecast at 26–33°C and daytime highs across the country ranging from 28–36°C, which leaves the upper end of the distribution still plausible but not extreme.[1] July climatology also points to frequent rain and highs around 30°C, reinforcing that the market is about the exact station maximum, not headline “feels like” heat.[3]

A trader should watch the morning forecast updates, any shift in rainfall timing over Seoul/Incheon, and whether cloud cover suppresses the afternoon peak before the settlement window closes. The key dependency is the Incheon Intl Airport Station entry on Wunderground, so the final print will follow that site’s recorded daily high rather than media forecasts or another nearby station.[1] Pressure on the price can change quickly if showers arrive earlier than expected or if clear intervals let temperatures spike briefly before the day’s top reading is fixed.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on July 27? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.