Highest temperature in Seoul on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's peak temperature on 28 July 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. The market currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% YES across the board on Polygon, suggesting either incomplete liquidity or a technical settlement state. Traders entering this market will be exchanging conditional tokens denominated in USDC, with payouts determined by which temperature bracket captures the actual high recorded that day.

July temperatures in Seoul cluster consistently between 28–32°C, with occasional spikes above 33°C during heat waves. The city's 30-year average high for late July sits near 29°C, though the 2018 heat wave pushed readings to 39.6°C—an outlier that illustrates the range of plausible outcomes. Recent summers have trended warmer; 2023 saw Seoul experience its hottest July on record at an average of 28.7°C. These historical patterns suggest mid-to-high 20s are baseline expectations, whilst readings above 35°C remain statistically uncommon but not unprecedented.

Traders should monitor the East Asian monsoon forecast and any tropical cyclone activity approaching the Korean peninsula in late July 2026. The Korea Meteorological Administration typically issues extended outlooks 10–14 days ahead, which will become actionable signals as the settlement window approaches. Upper-atmosphere pressure systems and sea surface temperatures in the Western Pacific drive Seoul's summer extremes; sustained high-pressure ridges over the region correlate with the highest recorded peaks. Any official heat-wave warnings issued by South Korean authorities in the week prior would signal elevated probability for the higher temperature brackets.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.