Highest temperature in Seoul on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 7 July 2026 will determine the outcome of this Polymarket contract, which currently prices the "YES" option at 0%. On the Polygon network, traders use USDC to buy conditional tokens that resolve based on Wunderground data for the Incheon station, not the abstract weather of Seoul. The market hinges on a single day’s peak reading during Korea’s monsoon season, where humidity often pushes felt temperatures above 34°C even when air temperatures hover near 28°C[1][2].

Historically, July in Seoul sees average highs between 27°C and 32°C, with frequent rain showers and humidity levels exceeding 80%[3][4]. Past data shows daily peaks can reach 34°C in extreme heatwaves, yet the monsoon typically suppresses sustained highs, making a 0% probability for "YES" plausible if the contract defines "YES" as exceeding a high threshold like 35°C[5][7]. The 12-day average of rainfall in July further reduces the likelihood of record-breaking dry heat, framing the current pricing as grounded in seasonal norms[3].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts for precipitation probability and temperature spikes, as a sudden shift to dry, hot conditions could alter the outcome[6]. Recent travel guides note that southern coastal areas like Busan remain drier, but Incheon’s proximity to the sea usually moderates extremes[1]. No major weather announcements are scheduled, but the Sinchon Water Gun Festival in late July may signal broader summer heat trends, though it falls outside the settlement window[1]. The on-chain mechanics remain fixed, with resolution dependent solely on Wunderground’s verified daily peak for Incheon.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on July 7? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.