Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's maximum temperature on 11 August 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement tied to whichever temperature range contains that specific reading in degrees Celsius. The market currently prices this outcome at 0% on Polygon, suggesting traders are either awaiting clearer atmospheric forecasts or treating this as a placeholder contract pending seasonal data inputs.

August in Shanghai typically sees daily highs between 32–35°C, though heat waves occasionally push readings above 37°C. Historical records from the past decade show that extreme heat events—temperatures exceeding 38°C—occur roughly once every two to three years during peak summer months. The 2013 heat wave brought Shanghai to 40.6°C, whilst more recent Augusts have remained within the 33–36°C band. Current pricing at 0% implies the crowd expects temperatures to fall within established seasonal norms rather than trigger outlier scenarios, though this assessment will shift as meteorological forecasts for late summer 2026 become available.

Traders monitoring this contract should track China Meteorological Administration seasonal outlooks and any El Niño or La Niña signals that typically influence East Asian summer temperatures. Shanghai's urban heat island effect—intensified by dense development in Pudong—can elevate airport readings by 1–2°C above surrounding areas. Real-time weather models become actionable roughly two weeks before the settlement date; significant revisions to long-range forecasts or unexpected atmospheric patterns in July 2026 would likely trigger repricing across temperature-range buckets.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.