Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's highest temperature on 17 August 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement determined by that primary source rather than any summary figures. The market currently prices this contract at 0% YES, suggesting traders see no meaningful probability mass assigned to any particular temperature range—a reflection of the settlement window closing over eighteen months away and substantial uncertainty in long-range weather forecasting.

August temperatures in Shanghai historically cluster in the 32–36°C range, with occasional peaks above 37°C during particularly intense heat waves. The city's summer weather patterns are driven by the East Asian monsoon and Pacific typhoon activity, both of which introduce volatility into seasonal forecasts. Since 2015, Shanghai has recorded seventeen days exceeding 37°C in August alone, establishing a baseline for understanding what constitutes an unusually hot day versus typical summer conditions. The 0% probability currently assigned suggests the market may be pricing in structural uncertainty rather than confidence that all temperature ranges are equally unlikely.

Traders monitoring this contract should track China Meteorological Administration seasonal outlooks released in the coming months, particularly any El Niño or La Niña signals that influence Western Pacific weather patterns. Typhoon activity in late July or early August 2026 could materially shift temperature expectations, as storm systems either bring cooler conditions or, conversely, enhance heat dome formation. Real-time updates to Weather Underground's Shanghai station data will become actionable only as the settlement date approaches, making early positioning dependent on medium-range climate signals rather than direct meteorological observation.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.