Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s daytime heat is the key driver for this market, because the contract resolves to the highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 2 August 2026, not to the citywide average. Polymarket users are pricing that outcome in USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens, so a 0% yes quote today implies the crowd sees the chance of a top-end heat reading as negligible rather than merely unlikely. August in Shanghai is normally hot and humid: climate averages cluster around the low-30s Celsius for daytime highs, and several historical guides place the month’s typical maximum near 32°C to 35°C.[1][3][4][9]

That 0% price is best read against Shanghai’s history of occasional extreme August heat. Public weather histories show Shanghai has hit 40°C in August in past years, and the city has logged 41°C as an all-time high, with 2025 producing a string of record heat days and a peak around 39.5°C.[5][2][16] Even so, forecast-style sources for early August 2026 point to highs mostly in the low- to mid-30s Celsius, which supports a base case well below the very highest settlement buckets unless a late heat spike develops.[8][10][15]

A trader should watch the latest Shanghai forecasts for any typhoon-driven pattern shift, because cloud, rain and onshore flow can cap the airport’s afternoon maximum even when the broader city stays warm.[8][16] The practical catalysts are the 24- to 72-hour forecast updates, any official heat warnings, and the day-of hourly readings at Pudong that will feed the Wunderground history page used for settlement. In a market this tightly defined, the main dependency is not general “Shanghai weather” but whether the airport station prints a brief, sustained peak high enough to cross the contract’s range boundary before the settlement window closes.[17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 2? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.