Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this contract at **0% YES** today, so the market is effectively saying the chance of Shanghai Pudong Airport’s hottest reading on 5 August 2026 landing in the specified temperature range is currently being treated as negligible. On Polymarket, buyers post USDC on Polygon and hold conditional tokens tied to the resolution source, so the price reflects what traders think Wunderground will record for the airport station rather than a broader city forecast.

For context, Shanghai’s August climate is normally hot and humid, with typical daytime highs around the low 30s Celsius and forecasts for early August 2026 clustering around the mid-30s Celsius, including highs near 34–35°C on 5 August in several models.[1][2][4][6][9][10] That matters because a “highest temperature” contract is usually driven by the single peak observation, not the average for the day, and airport stations can run slightly differently from downtown readings depending on wind, cloud cover, and sea-breeze effects. Long-run August averages and forecast ranges suggest heat is common, but the exact outcome still turns on whether the day’s maximum stays in the same band as the consensus forecast or gets nudged by a sharper afternoon surge.[1][17]

A trader should watch the final short-range forecasts, especially any updates that shift shower timing, thunderstorm risk, or cloud cover around the afternoon window when daily maxima are most often set.[8][10][15] The most relevant dependencies are local convection, humidity, and wind direction, because even a modest change in sea breeze or rainfall can cap the day’s top reading at Pudong. Since settlement uses Wunderground’s station history for Shanghai Pudong International Airport, the key question is not the citywide headline temperature but the exact airport observation that appears before the 12:00 UTC close on 5 August.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.