Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 10 July 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with the current crowd-implied probability of a "YES" result sitting at 0%. This zero figure reflects the market’s assessment that the day’s peak temperature will not fall into the specific range being traded, despite July being Shanghai’s hottest month, when averages reach 87°F and highs regularly exceed 30°C, often climbing to 35°C under clear skies[2][4].

Historical data from AccuWeather shows that July 2026 daily highs at Pudong are forecast between 86°F and 97°F (30°C to 36°C), with overnight lows between 77°F and 81°F, indicating that extreme heat is typical for this period[1]. The current 0% probability likely stems from the specific temperature bracket being too narrow or misaligned with these expected highs, rather than a lack of heat itself. Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, and watch for sudden shifts in weather patterns, such as the gusty winds and rain forecast for 11 July, which could influence temperatures on 10 July[6].

Key catalysts include the hourly forecast from Yr, which predicts 30°C for Friday 10 July, and wind data from Windy.app showing 8.2 m/s gusts on that day, both of which could moderate peak temperatures[9][8]. Any unexpected announcements regarding local weather anomalies or changes in the resolution window’s end time (2026-07-10T12:00:00Z) should also be tracked closely, as these could alter the market’s pricing dynamics on the Polygon network using USDC and conditional tokens.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.