Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai is currently experiencing strong winds and rain on Sunday 12 July, with a forecast high of 30°C at Hongqiao, while the Pudong station faces heavy rain and cloudy conditions today [8][10]. This active weather pattern, featuring significant precipitation and gusty easterlies, directly suppresses the likelihood of extreme heat, aligning with the market’s current 0% probability for a YES outcome on a high-temperature threshold.

Historical data for July at Pudong shows daily highs typically range between 24°C and 32°C (84°F–88°F), rarely exceeding 35°C even during the most sunny spells [1][5]. The average daily high peaks at 31°C mid-month, and recent days have recorded maximums of 31°C and 32°C before the current rain event [3]. Given that the settlement relies on the single highest temperature recorded at Pudong, the ongoing downpour and cloud cover make a record-breaking heatday statistically improbable, framing the zero probability as a rational reflection of current atmospheric conditions rather than an abstract anomaly.

Traders should monitor the hourly breakdown for Pudong on Yr.no and Wunderground’s daily history page as the settlement clock approaches, watching specifically for any sudden clearing that might allow temperatures to spike above 32°C [3][10]. The primary catalyst remains the persistence of the rain system; if the clouds break and winds shift to a dry southwesterly before 12:00 UTC, a marginal temperature rise could occur, though the current overcast and 89% humidity at Pudong suggest this is unlikely [4]. No official meteorological announcements are expected to alter the trajectory, as the resolution depends entirely on the observed station data rather than forecast models.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 12? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.