Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai faces its peak summer heat today, with the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station expected to record a maximum temperature that will determine the outcome of a specific weather contract on Polymarket. The market currently prices the "YES" outcome at 0%, implying the crowd believes the temperature will fall outside the specific range offered, despite July being historically the hottest month in the region.

Historical climate data for Shanghai Pudong shows that July temperatures regularly exceed 30°C, often reaching 35°C during sunny spells, with the hottest day of the year typically occurring around July 28 [1][6]. The average daily solar energy is increasing through the month, and growing degree days are rising very rapidly, creating a baseline where extreme heat is common rather than anomalous [1]. This historical context suggests the 0% probability may reflect a mismatch between the specific range set for this contract and the typical high temperatures recorded at this station, rather than a genuine expectation of cool weather.

Traders should monitor the live hourly forecast from Yr and the daily history on Wunderground, which serves as the official resolution source, for the final temperature reading at 14:00 local time [3][9]. Current forecasts indicate a maximum of 33°C with light rain expected overnight, which could moderate the peak temperature slightly [4][9]. Since settlement relies on the highest recorded temperature for all times on 13 July 2026, any sudden shift in cloud cover or wind speed from the SSE could alter the final figure before the 12:00 UTC settlement window closes [4]. The on-chain mechanics on Polygon, using USDC and conditional tokens, will execute automatically once Wunderground publishes the verified daily high.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 13? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.