Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's peak temperature on 21 July 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data via Wunderground. The Polymarket contract currently prices the YES outcome—that the high will exceed a specified threshold—at 1%, implying traders expect a relatively cool day for midsummer in Shanghai. This pricing reflects the conditional token mechanics on Polygon, where USDC collateral backs both YES and NO positions; the 99% implied probability on the NO side suggests confidence in more typical July conditions.

July represents Shanghai's hottest month climatologically, with average highs around 32°C and extremes regularly exceeding 35°C. Historical records show that temperatures above 37°C occur in roughly one-third of July days during peak heat waves, whilst readings below 28°C are exceptionally rare. The 1% crowd probability indicates the market is pricing for an outcome well outside the normal distribution—either an unusually cool day driven by sustained cloud cover and precipitation, or a threshold set sufficiently high that even Shanghai's summer extremes fall short. Comparable markets on extreme weather events typically see such low probabilities when the underlying condition requires multiple adverse factors to align simultaneously.

Traders monitoring this contract should track seasonal weather patterns emerging in June and early July 2026, particularly the East Asian monsoon progression and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific that could redirect moisture systems toward Shanghai. The China Meteorological Administration publishes extended forecasts roughly two weeks ahead; significant departures from the seasonal norm in late June would signal shifting odds. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on 21 July, giving traders the full calendar day to observe actual conditions before the window closes.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 21? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.