Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this Shanghai airport temperature contract at **0% YES**, which means the market is currently assigning no value to a top reading that lands in the contract’s winning range at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 25 July 2026. Because settlement is tied to the **highest temperature recorded that day** in Wunderground’s historical data for ZSPD, traders are effectively speculating on the day’s maximum, not the average or the evening low. The position is held through Polymarket’s usual on-chain setup, with **USDC** used for collateral and outcome exposure represented by **conditional tokens** on **Polygon**.

July is Shanghai’s hottest, most humid stretch, and comparable seasonal context argues for elevated but not extreme temperature outcomes. Travel guides put typical July highs around **32°C** and note frequent rain and muggy conditions, while short-term forecast sites show the city still capable of reaching the mid-30s Celsius during strong heat spells. That matters for reading the current 0% price: the market is not saying a hot afternoon is impossible, only that the contract’s exact resolution band looks unlikely relative to current pricing. Historical July weather in Shanghai also tends to be noisy, with heat often interrupted by showers, which can cap the day’s maximum even when the broader month is warm.

For traders, the main catalysts are the **near-term forecast updates** for Shanghai and any shift in cloud cover, rainfall, or humidity into 25 July, since these variables can move the day’s peak by several degrees. The practical dependency is whether the city gets a clean, sunny run-up or a rain-influenced afternoon that holds the high back. Since resolution uses a single airport station, localised weather near Pudong matters more than citywide averages, and the final print from Wunderground is what settles the contract.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.