Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 7 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical data confirms that July is Shanghai’s hottest month, with average daily highs reaching 33°C (88°F) and frequently exceeding 35°C (95°F) during sunny conditions[1][5]. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% YES, suggesting the market believes the temperature will fall outside the specific range being traded, yet this contradicts the typical summer climate where highs regularly surpass 30°C[6]. Comparable cases from recent years show maximum temperatures on 7 July often hitting 33°C to 34°C, with today’s forecast already indicating a maximum of 33°C at 14:00[2].

Traders should monitor live updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, for real-time temperature readings as the day progresses[2]. Key catalysts include the scheduled 14:00 peak temperature window and any sudden shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns, which could suppress the maximum reading. Recent weather reports from BBC Weather for nearby Hongqiao Airport show drizzle and high humidity (84%), which may influence Pudong’s conditions if the weather system extends eastward[3]. Additionally, the National Weather Service data for Pudong currently records 29.64°C at 4:00 am, with clear skies and rising temperatures expected[4]. Watch for official announcements regarding heatwaves or extreme weather schedules, as these dependencies directly impact whether the temperature reaches the contested range. The on-chain mechanics on Polymarket, using USDC on Polygon with conditional tokens, mean liquidity will shift rapidly once Wunderground publishes the final daily maximum.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.