Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen will record a daily maximum temperature on 11 August 2026, measured at Bao'an International Airport's official weather station and reported in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The market currently prices this contract at 0% implied probability across all temperature bands, suggesting traders view settlement as uncertain or the event structure as requiring clarification before meaningful positions form. This zero-probability state reflects typical early-market conditions for weather contracts that lack historical precedent or clear reference points.

Shenzhen's August climate presents consistent patterns worth examining. Historical data from the past decade shows daily highs in August ranging between 28°C and 35°C, with extreme readings occasionally exceeding 36°C during heat waves. The city's subtropical monsoon climate produces predictable summer conditions, though specific daily outcomes depend on atmospheric pressure systems and tropical storm activity. August 2025 recorded several days above 34°C, providing recent baseline data for assessing probability distributions across temperature bands.

Traders should monitor tropical cyclone forecasts issued by the China Meteorological Administration in late July 2026, as storm systems significantly alter temperature patterns across southern China. Sea surface temperatures in the South China Sea, typically tracked by oceanographic agencies, influence whether August conditions trend toward typical seasonal norms or anomalous extremes. Weather Underground's historical data quality for Bao'an station remains consistent, though traders should verify the Daily Observations table methodology against the Day High & Low summary section before settlement approaches, given the market's explicit resolution hierarchy.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 11? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.