Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 15 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges measured in degrees Celsius. The market currently prices all YES outcomes at 0%, reflecting either extreme confidence in a particular temperature band or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds across the contract's conditional token structure on Polygon. Resolution will draw exclusively from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the Day High & Low summary, a distinction that matters when automated weather stations report granular readings throughout the day.

Shenzhen's August climate presents a narrow historical band for forecasting. The city experiences peak summer heat in mid-August, with daily highs typically ranging between 32–35°C, though extreme readings occasionally exceed 36°C during particularly intense heat waves. The 2023 summer saw several days above 35°C in the region, whilst 2022 recorded comparable patterns. This historical clustering suggests the market's current 0% pricing may reflect traders' confidence that the actual temperature will settle within a specific range they've already backed, leaving other outcomes unpriced rather than genuinely improbable.

Traders should monitor tropical weather systems developing in the Western Pacific during late July and early August 2026, as typhoons or monsoon intensification can suppress temperatures significantly or, conversely, drive heat indices higher through atmospheric pressure changes. China's meteorological forecasts typically become reliable 10–14 days before the settlement date. Any unusual atmospheric patterns reported by the China Meteorological Administration in early August should prompt reassessment of conditional token positions, particularly if they suggest departures from the 32–35°C baseline.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.