Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract priced at **0% YES**, so the market is treating a qualifying high at Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport on 2 August as effectively out of the money for now. The contract settles against the **highest temperature recorded on the day** at the airport station, with outcome ranges decided from Wunderground’s history page, and trades are backed by **USDC on Polygon** through conditional tokens rather than by the weather itself.

For context, Shenzhen’s August climate is normally hot and humid rather than cool: long-run August averages cluster around the low 30s °C for daytime highs, with typical highs near **32°C to 32.5°C** and lows around **26°C to 27°C**.[2][4][9] Historical August readings also show that late-summer heat spikes are common, with one source citing a record maximum of **103°F** in Shenzhen in 2017.[8] That makes the current 0% price unusual only if the market is assuming the airport station will miss the top band on the resolution grid, not if traders expect a weak or cloudy morning.

The main catalysts are the local forecast, any shift in cloud cover or rainfall, and whether a typhoon-related pattern develops over southern China, since August in Shenzhen often carries elevated rain risk.[1][18] Traders should watch the Shenzhen forecast updates around the airport, because the settlement window closes at **12:00 UTC** and the day’s maximum may be set well before then if early heat is broken by showers or marine inflow. In practice, the relevant question on Polygon is not whether Shenzhen is “hot”, but whether the station’s observed peak clears the specific Celsius range that the market is pricing into the conditional tokens.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 2? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.