Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this Shenzhen heat contract at **0% YES** today, which on the Polygon market means the crowd is effectively assigning no value to a settlement in the targeted temperature range. The event itself is simple: the outcome will be set by the **highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport Station** on 4 August 2026, converted into the market’s Celsius buckets and resolved from Wunderground’s daily history page. On-chain, traders are buying and selling **conditional tokens** denominated in **USDC**, so the quoted price is the market’s live implied probability rather than a forecast in isolation.

That zero price is hard to square with Shenzhen’s August climate, which is normally hot and humid rather than cool. Long-run guides for the city put average August highs around **31–32°C**, with daily highs often clustering near the low 30s and overnight lows in the mid-to-high 20s[3][8][16][18][19][20]. Recent market-facing weather pages also show 4 August forecasts centred around roughly **31°C** with showers or patchy rain, which usually limits extreme heat but does not rule out a midday spike[3][6][9][15]. For a trader, the relevant comparison is not whether Shenzhen is warm, but whether the station’s top reading lands inside one of the market’s exact temperature bands rather than just near them.

The main catalysts are the day’s **hourly evolution**, especially when cloud cover, rain bands, and coastal convection either cap the afternoon maximum or briefly lift it before showers arrive. Shenzhen’s August weather is often unsettled, with heavy rainfall and a pronounced wet-season profile across multiple forecast services[3][4][20], so the highest reading can depend on a short window before precipitation strengthens. Traders should also watch for any weather warnings, typhoon-related updates, or forecast revisions during the day, because those can shift the expected peak temperature even if the settlement source remains the airport station’s final daily maximum.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.