Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen’s highest temperature on 13 July 2026 will be recorded at Bao’an International Airport, with historical data showing July 13 typically hits 32°C (90°F) amid heavy rainfall and subtropical highs[1][9]. The crowd-implied 0% YES probability suggests traders expect the peak to fall outside the market’s defined range, likely due to July’s frequent typhoon-driven cooling or cloud cover that caps extremes despite it being China’s hottest month on average[1][4]. Past records show Shenzhen rarely exceeds 35°C in mid-July, with thunderstorms and rain common on this date, which may suppress temperatures below the contract’s threshold[9].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground for the Bao’an station, as settlement hinges solely on its daily high[1]. Key catalysts include the China Meteorological Administration’s weekly heatwave alerts and any typhoon forecasts for the Guangdong coast, which could trigger sudden cooling[4]. Recent reports confirm China experienced its hottest July on record in 2023, but Shenzhen’s coastal location and monsoon patterns often moderate extremes compared to inland cities[4]. Watch for hourly temperature spikes between 14:00–16:00 local time, when peaks typically occur, and verify Wunderground’s data feed integrity before settlement on 13 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 13? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.