Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen faces its peak summer heat on 17 July 2026, with the day’s highest temperature at Bao’an International Airport set to determine the outcome of this weather contract. The market currently prices the 27°C range as the frontrunner at 70% probability, while 28°C holds 21%, leaving the YES outcome for any other range at 0% [1]. This pricing reflects the city’s typical July climate, where daytime averages reach 32°C but frequent rain and typhoon activity from the subtropical high often suppress peak temperatures [2].

Historical July data shows Shenzhen experiences 17 rainy days monthly, with precipitation averaging 339 mm, creating a natural cooling effect that aligns with the market’s lean toward the lower 27–28°C bands [2]. Traders should monitor the daily Wunderground feed for the Bao’an station, as the resolution source is fixed to this specific dataset [1]. Key catalysts include the timing of any incoming typhoon systems and the subtropical high’s strength, both of which directly influence whether temperatures breach 29°C. Recent weather forecasts for Guangdong highlight increased rainfall probability this week, reinforcing the current consensus [2].

On-chain mechanics operate via USDC on Polygon, where conditional tokens settle automatically once Wunderground publishes the day’s maximum temperature. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 17 July 2026, locking in the final reading. With the crowd-implied probability for non-27°C/28°C outcomes at 0%, the market signals strong confidence in a rain-cooled day, consistent with Shenzhen’s wet July pattern.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 17? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.