Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 21 July 2026, Shenzhen will record its highest temperature of the day at Bao'an International Airport Station, measured in Celsius. The market currently prices this contract at 0% across all temperature bands, suggesting traders are either awaiting settlement data or treating this as a non-event until historical records become available. On Polygon, conditional tokens will resolve based on Wunderground's historical weather database for that specific date and location, with USDC settlement following the resolution source's confirmation.

Shenzhen's July temperatures historically cluster between 32–35°C as daily highs, with occasional peaks above 36°C during heat waves. The city's subtropical climate produces consistent summer heat, though extreme outliers remain rare. Comparing adjacent years and the broader South China summer pattern provides the baseline for assessing which temperature band becomes most probable as the date approaches. Current 0% pricing reflects the absence of forward-looking weather forecasts this far out; once June 2026 arrives, meteorological services will begin issuing reliable 30-day outlooks that should shift market probabilities materially.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration announcements and seasonal climate indices from May onwards, as La Niña or El Niño conditions can influence regional heat patterns. Tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea during July occasionally moderates temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation, though such systems typically bring rain rather than cooling sustained highs. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 21 July, giving traders a narrow window to adjust positions once morning temperatures are recorded but before the day's peak is established.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 21? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.