Highest temperature in Taipei on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 16 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport Station will fall within one of several defined ranges, measured in degrees Celsius via Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The market currently prices all temperature outcomes at 0% YES across the board, reflecting the settlement window's closure date coinciding with the event itself—traders cannot yet observe the actual temperature and thus cannot arbitrage toward true probability. This creates a technical pricing anomaly rather than genuine market indifference; conditional tokens on Polygon will resolve only after the meteorological data is finalised and verified against Wunderground's primary source.

Taipei's August temperatures have historically clustered between 32–36°C, with occasional peaks near 37–38°C during heat waves. The city's subtropical climate produces consistent summer highs, though inter-annual variation exists; August 2023 saw peak temperatures of 36.8°C at Songshan, whilst August 2022 reached 37.2°C. These historical ranges provide calibration points for assessing which temperature brackets carry genuine probability mass versus those representing tail outcomes. The specificity of using Songshan Airport's Daily Observations table—rather than summary figures—matters operationally, as intraday peak readings sometimes diverge from published day-high summaries by 0.1–0.3°C.

Traders should monitor tropical cyclone activity and monsoon patterns in the Western Pacific during early-to-mid August 2026, as these systems materially suppress or elevate daily maxima. The Central Weather Administration's forecast issued around 10 August will provide the most actionable signal; sustained high-pressure systems typically correlate with 35°C+ outcomes, whilst approaching storm systems reduce peaks to 30–33°C ranges. Settlement hinges entirely on Wunderground's data publication, which typically occurs within 24 hours of the observation date.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Taipei on August 16? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.