Highest temperature in Taipei on August 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 18 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport Station will fall within one of several defined ranges measured in degrees Celsius. The market currently prices all YES outcomes at 0%, reflecting either extreme confidence in a particular temperature band or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful pricing across the contract's conditional token structure on Polygon. Settlement hinges on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures, a distinction that matters when intraday temperature spikes occur between official reporting intervals.

Taipei's August climate presents a narrow historical band for comparison. Daily highs in mid-August typically range between 32–35°C, with extreme heat occasionally pushing toward 37–38°C during particularly intense heat waves. The 2013 heat wave saw temperatures reach 37.3°C; more recently, August 2023 recorded sustained highs in the 34–36°C range. These precedents suggest the market's zero probability across all ranges warrants scrutiny—either the contract's range definitions exclude realistic outcomes, or traders have not yet positioned meaningfully in this market.

Monitoring tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific becomes critical as August approaches. The Japan Meteorological Agency's typhoon forecasts and any warnings issued in early August could suppress temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation, or conversely, a high-pressure system could drive readings toward the upper end of historical norms. USDC liquidity on Polygon for this contract will determine whether conditional token pricing tightens as settlement approaches, potentially revealing where informed traders actually expect the temperature to land.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Taipei on August 18? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.