Highest temperature in Taipei on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Taipei heat contract with **36°C** and **37°C** as the two dominant outcomes, at 37% and 36% respectively, which is a tight split for a market settled by the highest reading at Taipei Songshan Airport Station on 2 August.[1] In practical terms, traders are paying on Polygon with USDC for conditional tokens that pay out if the recorded daily maximum falls into the chosen temperature band, so the move between adjacent outcomes is what matters most near settlement.[1]

That distribution fits the broader August climate pattern for Taipei, where late-summer highs commonly sit in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, with 32–33°C showing up frequently in monthly averages and 34°C often cited as a typical top-end figure.[4][8][13][14] The market’s current bias to 36–37°C therefore implies traders are already leaning above the seasonal norm, but not far enough to price the extreme upper tail heavily; the sub-1% pricing on 30°C or below underscores how unlikely a notably cool day is in this setup.[1][5]

For traders, the main catalyst is the live weather path through the day rather than a formal announcement: cloud cover, afternoon convection, and any rain band crossing northern Taiwan can cap the eventual high, while clear early sunshine can push the maximum into the higher band before the station’s peak is locked in.[1][9] The only settlement-relevant data is the highest temperature published by the Wunderground history page for Taipei Songshan Airport Station, and revisions are considered until the first datapoint for the following date appears, so late updates matter if the official sequence is adjusted after the fact.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Taipei on August 2? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.