Highest temperature in Taipei on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Taipei’s **highest temperature on 9 August** is trading as a low-probability outcome on Polymarket, with the contract sitting at about **4% YES** and settling in **USDC** on **Polygon** through conditional tokens. The relevant payoff is not the broad idea of a hot day, but the exact Celsius band reached at **Taipei Songshan Airport Station** in Weather Underground’s **Daily Observations** table, which takes priority over the site’s day summary if the two differ.

That pricing sits well below typical August expectations for Taipei. Seasonal references put the city’s late-summer highs commonly in the high-20s to low-30s Celsius, while current weather services for 9 August point to rain and highs around **28–31°C** rather than a major heat spike. AccuWeather’s August outlook shows nearby dates with highs from **88°F to 96°F** (about **31°C to 36°C**), and other forecast pages for Taipei on 9 August cluster around the upper-20s Celsius, consistent with the market’s focus on whether the top reading lands in a lower band rather than a genuinely extreme one.[1][10][12][13][14]

For traders, the key catalysts are the actual station observations during the day and the timing of Weather Underground’s daily record publication, because the market cannot resolve until the first data point for the following date appears on the source page.[4] Rain intensity, cloud cover, and any late-morning or afternoon breaks in precipitation are the variables most likely to move the top temperature by a degree or two, which matters when the market is split across tight ranges around the high-20s. Existing forecast tools already lean towards heavy rain and modest daytime warmth, so any surprise depends more on timing of showers than on a wholesale change in the broader weather pattern.[2][12][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Taipei on August 9? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.