Highest temperature in Taipei on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport on 10 July 2026 will determine the settlement of this prediction market, with July historically delivering peaks near 33°C (91°F) and average highs of 92°F at this station. Current crowd-implied probability for a "YES" outcome sits at 0%, yet the on-chain market on Polymarket prices the leading outcome "31°C" at 30% and "32°C" at 28%, reflecting a nuanced view of the underlying weather rather than a flat dismissal. Traders using USDC on Polygon should note that conditional tokens here are pricing a realistic summer peak, not an abstract impossibility, as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 10 July 2026.

Historical data frames the current probability as a misreading of seasonal norms: July is peak summer in Taipei, with highs consistently around 33°C and lows near 26°C, while the Songshan Airport station specifically records an average high of 92°F in July. The market’s 0% "YES" probability clashes with the fact that yesterday’s 9 July event resolved to 35°C, confirming that temperatures in this period routinely exceed 31°C. This discrepancy suggests the crowd may be overlooking the station’s documented climatology, where July averages 32–33°C and forecasts for 10 July centre on highs near 89°F (≈32°C).

Traders must monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, and watch for any sudden shifts in cloud cover or humidity that could suppress the peak temperature. The Central Weather Administration currently reports clear skies at 01:00 with 84% relative humidity and hot conditions, while AccuWeather notes a RealFeel of 99°F (37°C) under 10% cloud cover, indicating strong solar heating. A recent forecast from Traveloka confirms July as peak summer with highs around 33°C, so any announcement of unexpected rain or a typhoon approaching Taiwan would be the critical catalyst to watch, as these dependencies directly determine whether the temperature falls below the 31°C threshold priced by the market.

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Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Taipei on July 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.