Highest temperature in Taipei on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport on 13 July 2026 will determine the settlement of this weather contract, with the market currently pricing a 0% probability for any outcome above the lowest defined range. On Polymarket, traders use USDC on the Polygon network to buy conditional tokens representing specific temperature bands, and the frontrunner outcome is 34°C at 37% probability, followed closely by 35°C at 34% [1]. This pricing reflects the collective view that extreme heat is unlikely, despite July being Taipei’s hottest month with an average high of 92°F (33.3°C) [2].

Historical data from mid-July in Taipei shows highs typically near 30°C from the 11th to the 20th, with lows around 25°C, making a 34–35°C peak plausible but not dominant [10]. The recent July 11 market resolved at 28°C with 100% certainty, suggesting cooler-than-average conditions are possible even in summer [3]. Traders should monitor the Central Weather Administration’s 7-day apparent temperature chart for Taipei/Songshan Airport, which updates hourly and may signal shifts in heat intensity before settlement [6]. The resolution depends entirely on Wunderground’s published daily maximum for RCSS, so any data delay or anomaly could impact final outcomes [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.