Highest temperature in Taipei on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is currently pricing the Taipei Songshan Airport reading for 24 July with **0% Yes** on this temperature-range contract, which on-chain means there is effectively no market-implied belief that the day’s high will resolve to any listed outcome. Because the shares settle in **USDC** on **Polygon** via conditional tokens, the price is a direct expression of crowd demand rather than a forecast model; in practice, the market can still reprice sharply if the late-afternoon forecast shifts or an outcome starts to look more plausible.

For context, Taipei’s July climate is typically hot, humid and rain-prone, with average highs around the low 30s Celsius and frequent showers, so the distribution usually clusters around the middle of the contract ladder rather than the extremes.[2][4] That helps explain why the leading outcomes on Polymarket tend to sit in the 32°C–35°C area, with the current frontrunner at 35°C and the next at 32°C.[1] For a range-based market like this, the key question is not whether Taipei will be warm, but how far the day’s peak gets pushed by sun, cloud cover and convective rain at the airport station.

A trader would watch the morning and early-afternoon forecast updates, because the contract resolves from the **highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport Station** on the day, not a citywide average or the evening close.[1] In weather terms, the most important catalysts are changes in rain timing, cloud breaks and wind direction, since those can shift the maximum by a degree or two. With settlement tied to the official Wunderground history page for that station, the final print matters more than the headline forecast, especially in a city where July weather is highly changeable.[1][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.