Highest temperature in Taipei on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Taipei's weather on 25 July 2026 will produce a single highest temperature reading at Songshan Airport Station, measured in Celsius. The current market pricing shows 0% probability across all temperature bands, reflecting either incomplete trader participation or genuine uncertainty about which range will ultimately contain the day's peak. Settlement depends on Wunderground's historical weather database for that specific station and date, with the conditional token structure on Polygon requiring precise range matching rather than approximate forecasting.

July represents Taipei's hottest month climatologically, with average daily highs around 33–34°C and extreme readings occasionally exceeding 37°C during heat waves. The past decade shows considerable variability: some mid-to-late July days have peaked near 35°C under typical summer conditions, whilst others have remained closer to 32°C during periods of cloud cover or monsoon influence. Historical extremes at Songshan Airport exceed 38°C, though such readings occur in roughly one summer per five years. This baseline matters because the 0% pricing suggests traders have not yet committed capital to any single range, leaving the market essentially unpriced rather than reflecting genuine consensus about cool conditions.

Catalysts shaping Taipei's weather that week include the East Asian summer monsoon's intensity, tropical cyclone activity across the Western Pacific, and upper-level atmospheric patterns. The Taiwan Central Weather Administration issues extended forecasts approximately ten days ahead; their mid-July 2026 outlook will provide the first substantive signal about whether high-pressure systems or moisture-laden flows will dominate. Traders should monitor tropical cyclone tracking from late June onwards, as storms can suppress temperatures significantly or, conversely, create extreme heat in their periphery depending on positioning relative to the island.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.