Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket currently prices this Tokyo Haneda Airport high-temperature contract at **0% YES**, which implies the market is assigning no chance to a qualifying heat reading within the settlement window. The event itself is straightforward: the market resolves from the **highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station on 1 August 2026**, with the outcome determined by Wunderground’s daily history page rather than live forecast models.[15]

For context, Tokyo’s August climate is normally hot, with average highs around **31°C to 34.6°C** depending on the data series, and recent historical records show that August extremes can run much higher in unusual heatwaves.[1][2][10] That said, even in a very warm month, the exact *daily maximum* at Haneda is what matters here, and a trader in the **USDC/Polygon conditional-token** market should distinguish between a broadly hot day and the specific peak value that lands in the settlement band. Tokyo has also seen record-breaking national heat in recent summers, including multiple days above **35°C** and Japan’s hottest-ever summer conditions, which is the kind of backdrop that can move short-dated weather pricing even when the local airport reading is still uncertain.[3][8][18]

The main catalysts are the short-term forecast trend, any heat advisories for the Tokyo area, and whether cloud cover, sea breeze, or afternoon convection suppresses the daily maximum at Haneda. AccuWeather’s August 2026 outlook shows Tokyo highs clustered roughly in the **low-to-mid 80s °F** with upper-end days near **90°F**, which is warm but not automatically record-setting for this market.[6] Because the settlement source is Wunderground’s station history, the practical checklist for holders is the observed peak before the window closes, plus any late-day temperature spike that appears after midday UTC and before the market’s cut-off.[15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.