Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 11 August 2026, Tokyo Haneda Airport Station will record its highest temperature of the day, measured in the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground rather than the Day High & Low summary section. The market currently prices this contract at 0% YES across all temperature ranges, suggesting traders assess near-zero probability that any specific threshold will be breached. This reflects either extreme confidence in a particular outcome or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful price discovery. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on the resolution date, with USDC collateral on Polygon backing the conditional tokens.

Tokyo's August climate presents consistent patterns worth examining against historical precedent. The city averages daily highs of 32–33°C during mid-August, with extreme heat events pushing towards 37–38°C occurring roughly once per decade. The 2010 heat wave saw temperatures exceed 40°C; more recently, August 2023 peaked at 35.1°C at Haneda. Current market pricing at 0% suggests traders expect temperatures to fall outside the highest-threshold ranges entirely, though this may reflect thin order books rather than genuine consensus.

Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in late July 2026, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy. Pacific typhoon activity patterns and upper-atmosphere pressure systems will determine whether August 11 experiences typical summer heat or anomalous cooling. The timing of any tropical systems approaching Japan in early August could materially shift temperature expectations, as cloud cover and precipitation suppress daily highs significantly.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 11? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.