Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's highest temperature on 15 August 2026 will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and measured against specific temperature bands in Celsius. The market currently prices this contract at 0% YES across all outcome ranges, suggesting traders perceive extreme heat as sufficiently unlikely that no single temperature bracket commands meaningful liquidity. Settlement hinges on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, a distinction that matters when intraday peaks diverge from official highs.

August temperatures at Tokyo Haneda have historically clustered between 28–34°C, with the station's records showing only occasional excursions above 35°C during peak summer heat waves. The 2010 heat wave pushed Tokyo to 39.1°C, whilst more recent summers have seen highs in the 33–36°C range. Current market pricing suggests traders assign low probability to extreme outliers, though the resolution mechanism's reliance on a single airport station introduces microclimate specificity that differs from broader city-wide measurements.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in early August 2026, particularly any alerts for heat domes or Pacific high-pressure systems that could drive temperatures above historical norms. El Niño or La Niña conditions entering northern hemisphere summer could shift baseline expectations. The timing of settlement—noon UTC on 15 August—means the market closes before Tokyo's typical afternoon peak, potentially affecting which temperature bands resolve in-the-money depending on morning versus midday conditions at Haneda.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 15? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.