Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract at **0% YES** on USDC collateral, so the market is effectively saying there is no priced chance of the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station high landing in the contract’s specified “YES” temperature range before the 12:00 UTC settlement cut-off. On Polymarket, that view is expressed through conditional tokens on Polygon, so the relevant question for a trader is whether the final Wunderground daily high for RJTT on 2 August 2026 ends up inside the range that the market resolves to, not whether Tokyo feels broadly hot or cool.

August is normally peak heat in Tokyo. Climate datasets put Tokyo’s August average high around 30–31°C, with typical daytime temperatures near 31°C and historical August extremes reaching the high 30s Celsius in past years.[1][3][8] That matters because a contract struck around a very low range would usually need an unusual cool spell or persistent rain/cloud cover to print there, whereas a higher bucket would be the more natural landing zone if conditions follow seasonal norms. Recent August forecasts for Tokyo have also sat in the low 80s to around 90°F, which is consistent with hot, humid midsummer weather rather than a materially cool outcome.[10]

The main catalysts are short-range weather drivers: a passing typhoon, a rain band, or a stalled front can cap the daytime high quickly, while a clear, sunny day can push the airport station towards the upper end of its normal range. Traders should watch the latest Japan Meteorological Agency guidance, airport-area forecasts, and any tropical system tracking in the western Pacific, because Tokyo’s actual high can move materially with late updates on cloud cover, wind direction, and precipitation timing. Wunderground’s daily history for RJTT is the settlement source, so the final printed high there is what matters, including any intraday spike before the settlement window closes.[11][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.