Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Tokyo heat contract as a **0% YES** long shot, even though the market is settled in USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens, so the relevant question is the highest reading actually logged at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in Weather Underground’s daily observations table. With settlement driven by that primary source rather than any headline “Day High & Low” figure, traders are effectively betting on the exact Celsius band that captures the day’s peak between now and the 12:00 UTC close.

That near-zero price sits well below what current weather context would suggest. Forecasts for Tokyo on 8 August point to a daytime high around the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, with AccuWeather showing a range of 83°F to 94°F for the month and timeanddate’s live Tokyo page showing 94°F as today’s forecast high alongside a morning reading already in the low 90s Fahrenheit.[1][2] Weather Underground’s own current conditions for Tokyo were 92°F at 9:39 AM JST, which is consistent with a hot afternoon and leaves room for the day’s maximum to print in the upper-20s to mid-30s Celsius bands used by the market.[4]

For a Polymarket user, the key catalysts are the intraday observations and any late-day revision of the Wunderground history page, since the contract resolves to the highest recorded temperature and revisions remain relevant until the first datapoint for the following date is published.[9] The main dependency is straightforward: if Tokyo Haneda’s observations top out around the forecasted low 30s Celsius, the most liquid outcomes should cluster there, while a cooler cloudier day or a late spike in heat would shift the final band. Weather services have also been flagging August as Tokyo’s hot, humid season, with typhoon-season variability able to disrupt temperatures and rainfall patterns.[15][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 8? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.