Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 10 July 2026 will likely fall within the 30–31°C range, as current on-chain pricing on Polymarket assigns a 38% probability to 31°C and 37% to 30°C, despite a misleading 0% crowd-implied probability for a “YES” outcome in the binary framing. This market resolves via conditional tokens on the Polygon network, settling in USDC once Wunderground publishes the first data point for that date, with the resolution source being the daily high temperature for Tokyo Haneda Airport Station.

Historical July weather in Tokyo shows average highs of 29°C, with the rainy season often ending by mid-month, leading to hot, humid conditions and frequent heat spikes. Recent records from 2026 confirm Tokyo has already experienced ten consecutive days above 35°C, and Tamba city recently hit 41.2°C, the nation’s warmest day ever, suggesting that extreme heat is not an anomaly but a growing trend in Japanese summers.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s daily heat advisories and any flight delay notices from JAL for 10 July, as severe heat can disrupt airport operations and influence temperature readings. A recent Facebook post from Japan Daily confirms the 35°C+ streak, reinforcing the likelihood of high temperatures in Haneda, while Wunderground’s upcoming data will be the definitive settlement trigger for this conditional token market.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.