Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo is set to face its peak summer heat today, with the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station on 13 July 2026 determining the outcome of this weather contract. The market currently prices the YES outcome at 0%, reflecting a collective belief that the temperature will not exceed the specific threshold implied by the binary structure, though the underlying event is simply the recording of a daily high. Traders on Polymarket utilise USDC on the Polygon network to buy conditional tokens, with prices updating in real-time as liquidity shifts across the various temperature-range outcomes.

Historical data frames this 0% probability as an outlier against recent trends, given Japan’s escalating heat records. In July 2025, the nation recorded its highest-ever temperature of 41.2°C in Tamba City, and the nationwide average for July 2025 was a record 2.89°C above the 1991–2020 baseline [4][5]. While Haneda’s July 2026 forecast suggests daily highs between 29°C and 33°C (76°–91°F), the market’s dismissal of higher outcomes ignores the pattern of consecutive record-breaking summers where Tokyo’s average July temperature reached 28.7°C [1][8].

The primary catalyst for traders is the live feed from Wunderground, which serves as the definitive resolution source for the Haneda station’s daily high [2]. No official announcements or scheduled dependencies exist beyond the standard meteorological observations, meaning the market relies entirely on the real-time temperature data published at the end of the settlement window. As the clock ticks toward the 2026-07-13T12:00:00Z deadline, the frontrunner outcome remains 31°C at 37%, with 32°C trailing at 24%, indicating that the 0% YES price likely stems from a specific threshold mismatch rather than a lack of heat [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.