Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 14 July 2026, Tokyo's highest temperature will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and settled against Wunderground's historical data. The current market pricing shows 0% probability across all temperature bands, reflecting either extreme uncertainty about which range will resolve or minimal trading activity to date. USDC conditional tokens on Polygon will settle once the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, with resolution dependent on a single, verifiable data point from a specified weather station.

Tokyo's July temperatures have historically clustered between 32–37°C, with occasional peaks above 38°C during heat waves. The city experienced 35.9°C on 14 July 2023 and 36.1°C on 14 July 2024, suggesting the most likely resolution range falls in the mid-to-high 30s Celsius. Extreme outliers—temperatures below 30°C or above 40°C on this date—remain statistically possible but uncommon. Historical volatility in early-to-mid July means traders should reference multi-year Haneda data rather than single-year anomalies.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in early July 2026, particularly alerts for seasonal heat waves or unusual weather patterns affecting the Kantō region. Typhoon activity, whilst less common in mid-July, can suppress temperatures significantly. The specific settlement source—Wunderground's Haneda Airport Station data—is publicly accessible and updated daily, eliminating ambiguity around which measurement station applies. Any major weather system developing in late June or early July could shift market expectations materially.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 14? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.