Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s peak heat on 17 July 2026, measured at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, is the real-world event this contract tracks, with the market currently pricing a YES outcome at 0% for any temperature range above the settlement threshold. On Polymarket, traders use USDC on Polygon to buy conditional tokens representing each temperature bracket, locking in exposure to the Wunderground-recorded daily maximum that will determine resolution.

Historical July highs at Haneda typically cluster between 28°C and 33°C, with 2023 reaching 34.2°C and 2022 hitting 33.9°C, suggesting the 0% current probability may reflect an unusually conservative crowd view or a mispriced threshold rather than genuine climatic expectation. Comparable on-chain weather markets in previous summers showed similar initial underpricing of extreme heat before late-week corrections as forecast models tightened.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s 5-day forecast updates released daily at 09:00 JST, which detail temperature anomalies and humidity trends ahead of the settlement date, alongside any sudden shifts in the Pacific high-pressure system that could trigger heatwaves. A recent analysis from the JMA’s July 2026 climate outlook notes a 65% likelihood of above-average temperatures across the Kanto region, a key catalyst that could rapidly reprice this contract if confirmed in the coming days [1].

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.