Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Tokyo Haneda Airport temperature contract at **35°C**, with the market giving that outcome **97%** and **36°C** just **2%**. On Polymarket, users post and trade **USDC** on **Polygon**, with the contract settling into the listed conditional token outcome once Wunderground publishes the day’s high for Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, so today’s price is a live read on where traders think the airport maximum will print rather than a forecast of city-wide comfort or averages.[1]

For context, Tokyo’s July heat normally sits in the **mid-20s to around 30°C**, but peak summer often pushes above **30°C**, and late-July readings in the **mid-30s** are common enough that a 35°C centre of gravity is not out of line with recent summer conditions.[2][3] That matters because this market is tied to the *single highest* temperature recorded at Haneda, not a daily mean, so even a brief hotter spell can decide the outcome if the airport’s thermometer catches a peak near the afternoon maximum.[1][2]

The main catalysts are the same ones that move any same-day weather market: the local forecast into the afternoon, cloud cover, rain bands, sea-breeze effects, and any heat advisories or synoptic changes over the Tokyo metro area. Traders should watch the Wunderground history page for the official daily high as it updates after the observation window, because the contract resolves off that station-specific figure rather than broader Tokyo reporting or national forecasts.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.