Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing Tokyo’s July 24 heat outcome on USDC collateral in Polygon-based conditional tokens, and the current crowd-implied probability is **0% YES** for a top temperature landing in the market’s yes range. The contract settles off the **Tokyo Haneda Airport Station** daily high from Wunderground, so traders are not forecasting “Tokyo” in a loose sense but a specific station reading within the settlement window.

That 0% price sits against a seasonal backdrop where Tokyo in July usually sees highs around **30°C** and very humid conditions, with rain still common through the month.[1] Comparable summer-weather markets often stay pinned low until the day itself because the exact maximum is sensitive to cloud cover, sea-breeze timing and afternoon convection; in other words, the distribution is wide, but the market is only paying for a particular temperature band. Wunderground’s station-specific history matters here because even a city-wide warm day can miss the chosen range if Haneda is muted by onshore flow or early cloud build-up.[1]

For catalysts, traders should watch the local forecast cycle, especially morning cloud, humidity and any rain bands that can cap the daytime high at Haneda, alongside the actual Wunderground history page as the day unfolds. A forecast implying a dry, sunny afternoon would be the main route to a higher settlement reading, while persistent cloud or showers would keep the print closer to the low-30s or below; July guidance for Tokyo explicitly highlights cooler mornings and indoor hours during the midday heat.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.