Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's peak temperature on 28 July 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. The market currently shows 0% probability across all temperature bands, reflecting either minimal trading activity or genuine uncertainty about which range will settle. Traders holding YES positions in any bracket are effectively long on that specific temperature band resolving correctly; the conditional token mechanics on Polygon mean positions in non-settling ranges expire worthless, concentrating value into whichever bracket captures the actual high.

July in Tokyo typically brings humid summer heat, with historical highs around 35–37°C during peak weeks. The 2023 summer saw Tokyo reach 37.5°C on multiple days in late July, whilst 2022 peaked at 35.1°C on 4 July. These precedents suggest mid-to-high 30s are baseline expectations, though extreme heat events have pushed the city toward 38–39°C in recent decades. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 28 July, giving traders roughly 12 hours after the calendar date begins to monitor actual conditions before final resolution.

The Japan Meteorological Agency publishes forecasts five to ten days ahead; traders should track their extended outlook for late July 2026 as the date approaches. El Niño or La Niña conditions in the preceding months will influence seasonal temperature patterns across East Asia. Haneda Airport's coastal location near Tokyo Bay can moderate extremes compared to inland urban areas, a factor worth considering when comparing this specific station's readings to broader Tokyo heat records cited in media reports.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.