Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing **0% YES** for a Tokyo temperature print that will settle from the highest reading at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, with the contract held in USDC on Polygon and resolved via the market’s conditional-token payout once the Wunderground history page is final. In practice, that means traders are not betting on the weather in Tokyo in the abstract; they are trading the chance that Haneda’s recorded daily maximum on 31 July 2026 lands inside the market’s specified Celsius bucket by the settlement cut-off.

The current price sits against a familiar late-July Tokyo baseline. Tokyo’s July averages are high by regional standards, with typical monthly highs around 28–29°C, while forecasts and climatology both show the city can move into the mid-30s during hot spells; one local forecast issued for 31 July 2026 put Tokyo’s daytime high at 36°C, with a partly sunny-to-cloudy setup and some inland rain chances later in the day.[3][15][16] By comparison, historical climate summaries also show 31 July as one of the clearer days of the month, which matters because stronger sunshine can lift the afternoon maximum even when humidity remains high.[17]

For traders, the key catalysts are the same ones that drive any same-day weather contract: the late-morning and afternoon forecast updates, the timing of any showers or thunderstorms around the airport, and whether marine winds or cloud build-out cap the high before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC. The market’s reference point is Haneda, so a citywide Tokyo forecast is only a proxy; the relevant number is the station-specific maximum on Wunderground, not the headline figure for central Tokyo.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.