Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 7 July 2026 will determine the outcome of this weather contract, with the market currently pricing a 0% chance for the YES position. On Polymarket, this conditional token trades on the Polygon network using USDC, where the zero probability reflects the crowd’s belief that the temperature will fall outside the specific bin being wagered upon.

Historical data frames this near-zero probability, as July in Tokyo typically sees highs between 27°C and 31°C, with recent records showing extreme heat reaching 41.2°C in Tamba city just last month[7]. While the Met Office forecasts a maximum of 30°C for Haneda today[1], the BBC notes drizzle and a high of 27°C for the 7th, suggesting cooler, wetter conditions that may suppress temperatures below the 27°C threshold[4]. This variability explains why the market assigns such low confidence to the current bin, as even a slight shift in cloud cover or rain could alter the resolution.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s daily updates and Wunderground’s real-time data for Haneda, as any sudden announcement of heatwaves or typhoon approaches could shift probabilities dramatically[3]. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 7 July 2026, meaning the final data point from Wunderground will be the sole determinant[2]. With July 2026 forecasts showing daily highs ranging from 76°F to 91°F (24°C to 33°C), the catalyst remains the precise timing of peak heat relative to the measurement window[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 7? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.