Highest temperature in Toronto on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is straightforward: on 9 July 2026, what will be the highest temperature recorded at Toronto Pearson International Airport in degrees Celsius? The market currently prices the 26°C bracket at 0% implied probability, meaning the crowd believes that outcome is virtually impossible. This contract resolves on Polymarket using USDC on the Polygon network, where conditional tokens determine payout based on the Wunderground-reported daily high for that station.

Historically, July highs at Toronto Pearson average around 79°F (26.1°C), rarely dipping below 70°F or exceeding 89°F, with the peak average occurring on 20 July [3]. Yet recent forecasts for early July 2026 show daily highs ranging from 73°F to 93°F, suggesting variability that could push temperatures well above 26°C [2]. The current 0% pricing likely reflects a sharp repricing after a similar market for 7 July saw only 33.5% probability for 26°C, with bearish momentum and a trend score just below neutral [1].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s heat advisory, which has been issued through 10 July and warns of temperatures in the low 90s with possible thunderstorms and rising humidity [8]. NOAA forecasts indicate next week could see temperatures 10 degrees above normal, reaching the upper 90s, with humidity increasing [8]. Since resolution depends on the official daily high recorded by Environment and Climate Change Canada, any sudden shift in cloud cover or storm timing could alter the final figure [1]. Watch for real-time updates from Wunderground and the NWS timeseries for CYYZ, as these directly feed the settlement logic [9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Toronto on July 9? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.