Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 27 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Warsaw Chopin Airport will determine which range this market settles into. The crowd has priced all outcome ranges at 0% YES, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds across the full distribution. This contract trades on Polygon as conditional tokens backed by USDC, with settlement contingent on historical temperature data from Wunderground's Warsaw Chopin Airport station archive.

Warsaw's July climate sits firmly within the European summer pattern. Historical data from the past two decades shows July highs typically range between 23–28°C, with extreme readings occasionally pushing toward 32°C during heat waves. The city's record July temperature stands at 34.4°C, set in 2022. The 0% crowd probability across all ranges suggests traders may be awaiting the market's full range specification or awaiting confirmation of which temperature brackets the market will actually offer at settlement.

Traders monitoring this contract should track European weather forecasting updates as July 2026 approaches, particularly from Météo-France and the German Weather Service, which publish extended outlooks 10–14 days ahead. Any significant heat dome forming over Central Europe in late July would shift expectations materially. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 27 July, giving traders a narrow window to adjust positions once intraday temperatures become observable. Wunderground's historical data feed has proven reliable for prior weather resolution markets, though traders should verify the specific station identifier (EPWA) matches the intended location before committing capital.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 27? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.